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Real Tamale vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nations
Nations
4/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Real Tamale47%
×Draw32%
Nations21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.14
Nations
0.66

Real Tamale creates 73% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.29
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.78
Nations
0.98

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
79%
Real Tamale or Nations
68%
Draw or Nations
53%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
20%
Nations wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
68%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
32%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
11%
Nations 1+ goals
48%
Nations 2+ goals
14%
Nations 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
69%
Nations (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nations attack 0.53 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Tamale scores more
47%
level
32%
Nations scores more
21%

Real Tamale at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tamale vs Nations

Real Tamale beat Nations 1-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2024.

The match was played at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex in Nalerigu.