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Real Tamale vs Heart of Lions — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions
A. F. Sayibu 76'
A. Owusu 7'
S. A. Asante 72'
E. Abban 41'
10/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Tamale48%
×Draw29%
Heart of Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.27
Heart of Lions
0.78

Real Tamale creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.29
Heart of Lions
0.78

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.78
Heart of Lions
1.24

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Heart of Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
77%
Real Tamale or Heart of Lions
71%
Draw or Heart of Lions
52%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
22%
Heart of Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
72%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
36%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
14%
Heart of Lions 1+ goals
54%
Heart of Lions 2+ goals
18%
Heart of Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
68%
Heart of Lions (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Heart of Lions away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Heart of Lions defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Heart of Lions attack 0.78 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Tamale scores more
48%
level
29%
Heart of Lions scores more
23%

Real Tamale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Owusu
41'
E. Abban
72'
S. A. Asante
76'
A. F. Sayibu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Real Tamale 2–2 Heart of Lions

Real Tamale and Heart of Lions drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Owusu (7'), E. Abban (41'), S. A. Asante (72'), A. F. Sayibu (76').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.