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Réal Sport vs UPI-ONM — Championnat National 2019

Réal Sport
Réal Sport
FT
2 – 0
UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
11/2/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 4Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Réal Sport46%
×Draw30%
UPI-ONM24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Sport
1.22
UPI-ONM
0.79

Réal Sport creates 54% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 90 away

creates per match

Réal Sport
0.84
UPI-ONM
0.73

allows per match

Réal Sport
0.86
UPI-ONM
1.59

finishing

Réal Sport+0.00on par
UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Sport ↓

UPI-ONM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Sport or draw
76%
Réal Sport or UPI-ONM
70%
Draw or UPI-ONM
54%

Winning margin

Réal Sport wins by 2+
21%
UPI-ONM wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Réal Sport 1+ goals
70%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
34%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
12%
UPI-ONM 1+ goals
55%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
19%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Réal Sport (draw refunded)
66%
UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Sport at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.86 · 83 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.59 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Sport attack 0.84 + UPI-ONM defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.22

UPI-ONM attack 0.73 + Réal Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Réal Sport scores more
46%
level
30%
UPI-ONM scores more
24%

Réal Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Réal Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Réal Sport 2–0 UPI-ONM

Réal Sport beat UPI-ONM 2-0 in Championnat National on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.