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Réal Sport vs Esae — Championnat National 2019

Réal Sport
Réal Sport
FT
0 – 1
Esae
Esae
11/9/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 5Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Réal Sport31%
×Draw32%
Esae38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Sport
0.89
Esae
1.03

Esae creates 16% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

creates per match

Réal Sport
0.84
Esae
1.21

allows per match

Réal Sport
0.86
Esae
0.94

finishing

Réal Sport+0.00on par
Esae+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Sport ↓

Esae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Sport or draw
62%
Réal Sport or Esae
68%
Draw or Esae
69%

Winning margin

Réal Sport wins by 2+
11%
Esae wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Réal Sport 1+ goals
59%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
22%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
6%
Esae 1+ goals
64%
Esae 2+ goals
28%
Esae 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Réal Sport (draw refunded)
45%
Esae (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Sport at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.86 · 83 matches

Esae away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Sport attack 0.84 + Esae defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Esae attack 1.21 + Réal Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Réal Sport scores more
31%
level
32%
Esae scores more
38%

Esae at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Réal Sport vs Esae

Esae beat Réal Sport 1-0 in Championnat National on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.