Réal Sport 0–1 Béké Bembèrèkè: Result & Stats

Réal Sport

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Béké Bembèrèkè

3/3/2024

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 1Stade Omnisports de Ouessè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Réal Sport37%

×Draw32%

Béké Bembèrèkè31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Réal SportExpected goals in this matchBéké Bembèrèkè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.88

Réal Sport

1.00

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.88

Réal Sport creates 14% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 92 away

0.84

creates per match

0.90

0.86

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Réal Sport

0.84

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.90

allows per match

Réal Sport

0.86

Béké Bembèrèkè

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Réal Sport+0.00on par

Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Sport ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Réal Sport or draw

69%

Réal Sport or Béké Bembèrèkè

68%

Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè

63%

Winning margin

Réal Sport wins by 2+

14%

Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Réal Sport 1+ goals

63%

Réal Sport 2+ goals

26%

Réal Sport 3+ goals

8%

Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals

59%

Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals

22%

Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Réal Sport (draw refunded)

55%

Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Sport at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.86 · 83 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Sport attack 0.84 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.90 + Réal Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Réal Sport scores more

37%

level

32%

Béké Bembèrèkè scores more

31%

Réal Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Réal Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff