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Real Sociedad W vs Valencia W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
Preview
15:00
Valencia W
Valencia W
5/19/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 29Instalaciones de Zubieta
Big match
56%
Real Sociedad W
model favours
56%22%22%

Valencia W win just 13% against the top half (vs 40% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Real Sociedad W56%
×Draw22%
Valencia W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.89
Valencia W
1.10

Real Sociedad W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 105 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Valencia W
0.94

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Valencia W
1.91

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Valencia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
78%
Real Sociedad W or Valencia W
78%
Draw or Valencia W
44%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
32%
Valencia W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
85%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
56%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
29%
Valencia W 1+ goals
67%
Valencia W 2+ goals
30%
Valencia W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
72%
Valencia W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
56%
level
22%
Valencia W scores more
22%

Real Sociedad W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Real Sociedad W
Balanced
Valencia W
Balanced
54%Possession46%
78%Pass accuracy70%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap10.1
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Real Sociedad WValencia W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Real Sociedad W
1
Draws
3
Valencia W
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 40%
0–22–00–32–04–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWWW
W
DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Sociedad W vs Valencia W — Match Preview

Real Sociedad W face Valencia W on May 19, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Sociedad W host Valencia W at Instalaciones de Zubieta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.