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Real Sociedad W vs Tacón W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
CANC
00:00
Tacón W
Tacón W
4/5/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Centro de Entrenamiento Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Real Sociedad W58%
×Draw20%
Tacón W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
2.33
Tacón W
1.38

Real Sociedad W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 10 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Tacón W
1.50

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Tacón W
2.80

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Tacón W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Tacón W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
78%
Real Sociedad W or Tacón W
80%
Draw or Tacón W
42%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
37%
Tacón W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
90%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
67%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
41%
Tacón W 1+ goals
75%
Tacón W 2+ goals
40%
Tacón W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
73%
Tacón W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Tacón W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Tacón W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.33

Tacón W attack 1.50 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
58%
level
20%
Tacón W scores more
22%

Real Sociedad W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Sociedad W host Tacón W

April 5, 2020: Real Sociedad W take on Tacón W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Sociedad W host Tacón W at Centro de Entrenamiento Zubieta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.