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Real Sociedad W vs Santa Teresa — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Santa Teresa
Santa Teresa
5/30/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 28Centro de Entrenamiento Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Sociedad W63%
×Draw20%
Santa Teresa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
2.20
Santa Teresa
1.05

Real Sociedad W creates 110% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Santa Teresa
0.84

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Santa Teresa
2.53

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Santa Teresa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Santa Teresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
83%
Real Sociedad W or Santa Teresa
80%
Draw or Santa Teresa
37%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
40%
Santa Teresa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
89%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
64%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
37%
Santa Teresa 1+ goals
65%
Santa Teresa 2+ goals
28%
Santa Teresa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
79%
Santa Teresa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Santa Teresa away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Santa Teresa defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.20

Santa Teresa attack 0.84 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
63%
level
20%
Santa Teresa scores more
17%

Real Sociedad W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad W vs Santa Teresa

Real Sociedad W beat Santa Teresa 4-1 in Primera División Femenina on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Centro de Entrenamiento Zubieta in Lasarte-Oria.