Real Sociedad W 2–0 Rayo Vallecano W

Real Sociedad W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rayo Vallecano W

3/17/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 24Estadio Zubieta XXI (Lasarte-Oria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Real Sociedad W59%

×Draw21%

Rayo Vallecano W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.04

Real Sociedad W

1.99

Rayo Vallecano W

1.04

Real Sociedad W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 58 away

1.87

creates per match

0.81

1.26

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

Rayo Vallecano W

0.81

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

Rayo Vallecano W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

81%

Real Sociedad W or Rayo Vallecano W

79%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano W

41%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

35%

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

86%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

59%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

32%

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

65%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

28%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

75%

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.99

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

59%

level

21%

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

19%

Real Sociedad W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff