Rayo Vallecano W vs Real Sociedad W

Rayo Vallecano W

CANC

00:00

Real Sociedad W

4/19/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 26Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W31%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.64

Rayo Vallecano W

1.34

Real Sociedad W

1.64

Real Sociedad W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

1.22

creates per match

1.65

1.62

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.22

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.62

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw

56%

Rayo Vallecano W or Real Sociedad W

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

69%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

14%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

74%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

39%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

15%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

81%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

49%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

41%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

31%

level

24%

Real Sociedad W scores more

44%

Real Sociedad W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff