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Real Sociedad W vs Fundacion Albacete W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fundacion Albacete W
Fundacion Albacete W
3/26/2017Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Primera Division Women - Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Real Sociedad W58%
×Draw20%
Fundacion Albacete W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
2.17
Fundacion Albacete W
1.25

Real Sociedad W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 33 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Fundacion Albacete W
1.24

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Fundacion Albacete W
2.48

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Fundacion Albacete W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
79%
Real Sociedad W or Fundacion Albacete W
80%
Draw or Fundacion Albacete W
42%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
36%
Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
89%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
64%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
36%
Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals
71%
Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals
36%
Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
73%
Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Fundacion Albacete W away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.24 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
58%
level
20%
Fundacion Albacete W scores more
21%

Real Sociedad W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 1–0 Fundacion Albacete W

Real Sociedad W beat Fundacion Albacete W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on March 26, 2017.