Real Sociedad W 0–2 Atletico Madrid W

Real Sociedad W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Madrid W

R. Ajibade 90'

Ludmila 14'

4/28/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 25Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Real Sociedad W35%

×Draw24%

Atletico Madrid W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.59

Real Sociedad W

1.45

Atletico Madrid W

1.59

Atletico Madrid W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

1.87

creates per match

1.92

1.26

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

Atletico Madrid W

1.92

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

Atletico Madrid W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

59%

Real Sociedad W or Atletico Madrid W

76%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

65%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

42%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

47%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

35%

level

24%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

41%

Atletico Madrid W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Lola Gallardo

Atletico Madrid W · G

8.3

Match Events

-5'

14'

29'

51'

61'

Sheila Guijarro← E. Banini

69'

Ana Vitória← Ludmila

70'

Sheila García← V. Bøe Risa

71'

Cecilia Marcos← Alejandra Bernabé

83'

Mirari Uria← S. Jensen

83'

Elene Guridi← Nerea Eizagirre

86'

Sonia Majarín← Eva Navarro

89'

J. Owusu← S. Franssi

90'

R. Ajibade↳ Ana Vitória

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealAtletico

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots12

8Corners1

9Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target6

5Off Target4

6Blocked2

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box8

Passing

59%Possession41%

513Total Passes361

418Accurate Passes289

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 0–2 Atletico Madrid W

Atletico Madrid W beat Real Sociedad W 2-0 in Primera División Femenina on April 28, 2024.

Goals: Ludmila (14'), R. Ajibade (90').

Real Sociedad W controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad W vs Atletico Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 0–2 Atletico Madrid W