Real Sociedad W 1–4 Atletico Madrid W

Real Sociedad W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Atletico Madrid W

10/26/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 7Centro de Entrenamiento Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Real Sociedad W35%

×Draw24%

Atletico Madrid W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.59

Real Sociedad W

1.45

Atletico Madrid W

1.59

Atletico Madrid W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

1.87

creates per match

1.92

1.26

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

Atletico Madrid W

1.92

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

Atletico Madrid W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

59%

Real Sociedad W or Atletico Madrid W

76%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

65%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

42%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

47%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

35%

level

24%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

41%

Atletico Madrid W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff