Real Sociedad W 1–1 Athletic Club W: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Athletic Club W

11/16/2025

Primera División Femenina · Round 11Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Real Sociedad W49%

×Draw24%

Athletic Club W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

Real Sociedad W

1.71

Athletic Club W

1.23

Real Sociedad W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

1.87

creates per match

1.21

1.26

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

72%

Real Sociedad W or Athletic Club W

76%

Draw or Athletic Club W

51%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

26%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

82%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

51%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

24%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

71%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

35%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

64%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

49%

level

24%

Athletic Club W scores more

28%

Real Sociedad W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff