Real Sociedad U19 0–2 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Salzburg U19

Z. Jánó 45'

V. Sulzbacher 39'

11/29/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Sociedad U1932%

×Draw22%

Salzburg U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.97

Real Sociedad U19

1.60

Salzburg U19

1.97

Salzburg U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.94

2.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Real Sociedad U19

1.67

Salzburg U19

1.94

allows per match

Real Sociedad U19

2.00

Salzburg U19

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Real Sociedad U19 or draw

54%

Real Sociedad U19 or Salzburg U19

78%

Draw or Salzburg U19

68%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad U19 wins by 2+

15%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Real Sociedad U19 1+ goals

80%

Real Sociedad U19 2+ goals

47%

Real Sociedad U19 3+ goals

22%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

86%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

58%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad U19 attack 1.67 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Salzburg U19 attack 1.94 + Real Sociedad U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Sociedad U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Salzburg U19 scores more

46%

Salzburg U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

V. Sulzbacher

35'

S. Leitner

39'

V. Sulzbacher↳ Z. Jánó

45'

Z. Jánó

46'

T. Paumgartner← V. Sulzbacher

46'

T. Trummer← Mohammad Sadeqi

46'

P. Verhounig← A. Daghim

50'

Jon Eceizabarrena← Iker Otadui

50'

Jon Garro← Aritz Amenabar

57'

P. Verhounig

66'

B. Atiabou← M. Gevorgyan

76'

Lander Astiazarán← Martín Arruti

81'

E. Astigarraga

83'

Elione Neto← M. Neumann

90+1'

L. Reischl

90+4'

J. Eceizabarrena

90+1'

Eneko Behobide← A. Lebarbier

Real

Salzburg

30

Hamzić

44

▼

3

20

39

8

▼

Sadeqi

10

⚽A

Jánó

29

⚽

▼

Sulzbache

9

Reischl

25

▼

Neumann

22

▼

1

5

4

3

2

▼

Amenabar

6

▼

Lebarbier

8

▼

Arruti

11

▼

10

7

9

Manager: Mikel Llorente

50'▲Jon Eceizabarrena←▼Iker Otadui

50'▲Jon Garro←▼Aritz Amenabar

76'▲Lander Astiazarán←▼Martín Arruti

90+1'▲Eneko Behobide←▼A. Lebarbier

Real Sociedad U19 substitutes

16Eceizabarrena17Garro15Astiazarán12Behobide18Garcia14Torres13Velarde

Manager: S. Milicevic

46'▲T. Paumgartner←▼V. Sulzbacher

46'▲T. Trummer←▼Mohammad Sadeqi

46'▲P. Verhounig←▼A. Daghim

66'▲B. Atiabou←▼M. Gevorgyan

83'▲Elione Neto←▼M. Neumann

Salzburg U19 substitutes

24Paumgartner37Trummer23Verhounig27Atiabou35Neto34Zawieschitzky14Brandtner