Real Sociedad III 1–2 Sestao River: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sestao River

1/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Sociedad III36%

×Draw26%

Sestao River38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchSestao River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.34

Real Sociedad III

1.31

Sestao River

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

1.57

creates per match

1.75

0.93

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Sestao River

1.75

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Sestao River

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Sestao River →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

62%

Real Sociedad III or Sestao River

74%

Draw or Sestao River

64%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

16%

Sestao River wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

73%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

38%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

14%

Sestao River 1+ goals

74%

Sestao River 2+ goals

39%

Sestao River 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

49%

Sestao River (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

36%

level

26%

Sestao River scores more

38%

Sestao River at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Sestao River

Sestao River beat Real Sociedad III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad III vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Sestao River