Real Sociedad III 2–1 Santutxu: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santutxu

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III52%

×Draw25%

Santutxu23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchSantutxu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Real Sociedad III

1.58

Santutxu

0.96

Real Sociedad III creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

1.57

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Santutxu

0.98

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Santutxu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Santutxu →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

77%

Real Sociedad III or Santutxu

75%

Draw or Santutxu

48%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

27%

Santutxu wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

79%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

47%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

21%

Santutxu 1+ goals

62%

Santutxu 2+ goals

25%

Santutxu 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

69%

Santutxu (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

52%

level

25%

Santutxu scores more

23%

Real Sociedad III at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Santutxu

Real Sociedad III beat Santutxu 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad III vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Santutxu