Real Sociedad III 1–1 Pasaia KE: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pasaia KE

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III49%

×Draw26%

Pasaia KE25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.97

Real Sociedad III

1.48

Pasaia KE

0.97

Real Sociedad III creates 53% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 111 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

75%

Real Sociedad III or Pasaia KE

74%

Draw or Pasaia KE

51%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

25%

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

19%

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

62%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

25%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

66%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

49%

level

26%

Pasaia KE scores more

25%

Real Sociedad III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE

Real Sociedad III and Pasaia KE drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Pasaia KE