Real Sociedad III 3–2 Gernika: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Gernika

1/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Sociedad III37%

×Draw27%

Gernika36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchGernika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.26

Real Sociedad III

1.29

Gernika

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

1.59

0.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Gernika

1.59

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Gernika

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Gernika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Gernika →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

64%

Real Sociedad III or Gernika

73%

Draw or Gernika

63%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

17%

Gernika wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

72%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

37%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

14%

Gernika 1+ goals

72%

Gernika 2+ goals

36%

Gernika 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

51%

Gernika (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Gernika away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Gernika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gernika attack 1.59 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

37%

level

27%

Gernika scores more

36%

Real Sociedad III at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Gernika

Real Sociedad III beat Gernika 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad III vs Gernika — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Gernika