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Real Sociedad III vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Derio
Derio
10/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Campo José Luis Orbegozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III45%
×Draw27%
Derio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad III
1.40
Derio
1.04

Real Sociedad III creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 53 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad III
1.57
Derio
1.15

allows per match

Real Sociedad III
0.93
Derio
1.23

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw
72%
Real Sociedad III or Derio
73%
Draw or Derio
55%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
22%
Derio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
75%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
41%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
17%
Derio 1+ goals
65%
Derio 2+ goals
28%
Derio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
62%
Derio (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Derio attack 1.15 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more
45%
level
27%
Derio scores more
28%

Real Sociedad III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Derio

Derio beat Real Sociedad III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo José Luis Orbegozo in Donostia-San Sebastián.