Real Sociedad III 0–2 Añorga: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Añorga

1/10/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Campo José Luis Orbegozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Real Sociedad III65%

×Draw21%

Añorga13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchAñorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.71

Real Sociedad III

1.88

Añorga

0.71

Real Sociedad III creates 165% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 33 away

1.57

creates per match

0.48

0.93

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Añorga

0.48

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Añorga

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Añorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Añorga →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

87%

Real Sociedad III or Añorga

79%

Draw or Añorga

35%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

39%

Añorga wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

85%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

56%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

29%

Añorga 1+ goals

51%

Añorga 2+ goals

16%

Añorga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

83%

Añorga (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Añorga away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Añorga defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.88

Añorga attack 0.48 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

65%

level

21%

Añorga scores more

13%

Real Sociedad III at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Añorga

Añorga beat Real Sociedad III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Campo José Luis Orbegozo in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad III vs Añorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Añorga