Real Sociedad II 0–1 Zamora: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zamora

Carlos Ramos 65'

3/15/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II46%

×Draw27%

Zamora28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Real Sociedad II

1.42

Zamora

1.04

Real Sociedad II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

1.55

creates per match

1.04

1.03

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

72%

Real Sociedad II or Zamora

73%

Draw or Zamora

54%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

22%

Zamora wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

76%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

17%

Zamora 1+ goals

65%

Zamora 2+ goals

28%

Zamora 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

62%

Zamora (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Zamora attack 1.04 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

46%

level

27%

Zamora scores more

28%

Real Sociedad II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Ramirez

35'

T. Carbonell

60'

D. Diaz

63'

Darío Ramírez← Alex Marchal

63'

J. Ochieng← Dani Díaz

63'

Roni← Pito Camacho

64'

M. Rodriguez

65'

Carlos Ramos

69'

Edu Campabadal← Joel Priego

69'

Guillermo Macho← Álvaro Romero

80'

A. Lebarbier← Tomás Carbonell

80'

Eder García← Gorka Carrera

82'

Aleix Gorjón← R. Lucero

82'

Dani Hernández← Rafa Tresaco

83'

Ibai Cabo← Mikel Rodríguez

90'

A. Alvarez

90'

S. Nieto

90+5'

D. Hernandez

Real

Zamora

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Francisco

63'▲Darío Ramírez←▼Alex Marchal

63'▲J. Ochieng←▼Dani Díaz

80'▲A. Lebarbier←▼Tomás Carbonell

80'▲Eder García←▼Gorka Carrera

83'▲Ibai Cabo←▼Mikel Rodríguez

Real Sociedad II substitutes

RamírezOchiengLebarbierGarcíaCaboZangoRoperoGarroOrobengoaGibelaldeAgote

Manager: Juan Sabas

63'▲Roni←▼Pito Camacho

69'▲Edu Campabadal←▼Joel Priego

69'▲Guillermo Macho←▼Álvaro Romero

82'▲Aleix Gorjón←▼R. Lucero

82'▲Dani Hernández←▼Rafa Tresaco

Zamora substitutes

RoniCampabadalMachoGorjónHernándezGutiérrezAltubeBelloFrimpongCastañeda

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 0–1 Zamora

Zamora beat Real Sociedad II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Ramos (65').

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 0–1 Zamora