Real Sociedad II 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Real Sociedad II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

1/18/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Sociedad II53%

×Draw24%

Unionistas de Salamanca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.06

Real Sociedad II

1.74

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.06

Real Sociedad II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

1.31

0.80

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.31

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

77%

Real Sociedad II or Unionistas de Salamanca

76%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

47%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

29%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

82%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

52%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

25%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

65%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

29%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

70%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

53%

level

24%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

23%

Real Sociedad II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Álvaro Romero← Chicha Aguilera

58'

Iván Garrido← Óscar González

61'

Xeber Alkain← Robert Navarro

74'

Aritz Aldasoro← Z. Thior

77'

A. Gorostidi

77'

A. Gorostidi

83'

M. Amouzou← Guille Andrés

89'

Unai Veiga← Roberto López

Real

Unionistas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Xabi Alonso

61'▲Xeber Alkain←▼Robert Navarro

74'▲Aritz Aldasoro←▼Z. Thior

89'▲Unai Veiga←▼Roberto López

Real Sociedad II substitutes

AlkainAldasoroVeigaGarridoOlasagastiLucbertZeberio

Manager: Jabi Luaces

58'▲Álvaro Romero←▼Chicha Aguilera

58'▲Iván Garrido←▼Óscar González

83'▲M. Amouzou←▼Guille Andrés

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

RomeroGarridoAmouzouPlaceresPereiroVázquezDieguito

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Real Sociedad II and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad II vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca