Real Sociedad II 3–1 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Salamanca UDS

N. Djouahra 68', 30'

Roberto López 4'

Giovanni 90'

11/9/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Sociedad II58%

×Draw23%

Salamanca UDS19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.90

Real Sociedad II

1.79

Salamanca UDS

0.90

Real Sociedad II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Salamanca UDS

1.00

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Salamanca UDS

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

81%

Real Sociedad II or Salamanca UDS

77%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

42%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

33%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

83%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

53%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

26%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

59%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

23%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

76%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

58%

level

23%

Salamanca UDS scores more

19%

Real Sociedad II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Roberto López

30'

N. Djouahra

46'

Hugo Díaz← N. Calderón

57'

Álex Serrano← J. Chiapas

61'

Z. Thior← Julen Lobete

65'

Álex Altube← Edu Ubis

68'

N. Djouahra

74'

Olasagasti← Roberto López

82'

T. Lucbert← N. Djouahra

90'

Giovanni

Real

Salamanca

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Djouahra

Zubimendi

Aldasoro

⚽

▼

López

▼

Lobete

Manager: Xabi Alonso

61'▲Z. Thior←▼Julen Lobete

74'▲Olasagasti←▼Roberto López

82'▲T. Lucbert←▼N. Djouahra

Real Sociedad II substitutes

ThiorOlasagastiLucbertGarridoAgirreVeigaAlkain

46'▲Hugo Díaz←▼N. Calderón

57'▲Álex Serrano←▼J. Chiapas

65'▲Álex Altube←▼Edu Ubis

Salamanca UDS substitutes

DíazSerranoAltubeSánchezSánchezAmaroMedina