Real Sociedad II 1–1 Real Valladolid II

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Valladolid II

Martín Zubimendi 84'

G. Mancuso 54'

2/23/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Sociedad II53%

×Draw25%

Real Valladolid II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.90

Real Sociedad II

1.57

Real Valladolid II

0.90

Real Sociedad II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Real Valladolid II

1.00

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Real Valladolid II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

78%

Real Sociedad II or Real Valladolid II

75%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

47%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

28%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

79%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

46%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

21%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

59%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

23%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

71%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.57

Real Valladolid II attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

53%

level

25%

Real Valladolid II scores more

22%

Real Sociedad II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

G. Mancuso

65'

Raúl Uche← Miguel De la Fuente

72'

Aritz Aldasoro← Robert Navarro

72'

N. Djouahra← Xeber Alkain

75'

Roberto Corral← Carlos Doncel

76'

Garrido← Julen Lobete

79'

Fran Álvarez← Ignasi Vilarrasa

84'

90'

Real

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Xabi Alonso

72'▲Aritz Aldasoro←▼Robert Navarro

72'▲N. Djouahra←▼Xeber Alkain

76'▲Garrido←▼Julen Lobete

Real Sociedad II substitutes

AldasoroDjouahraGarridoGabilondoAyesaLucbertVeiga

Manager: Baraja

65'▲Raúl Uche←▼Miguel De la Fuente

75'▲Roberto Corral←▼Carlos Doncel

79'▲Fran Álvarez←▼Ignasi Vilarrasa

Real Valladolid II substitutes

UcheCorralÁlvarezSánchezAparicioMuñozPérez