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Real Sociedad II vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
2/11/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real Sociedad II52%
×Draw26%
Real Unión22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.50
Real Unión
0.88

Real Sociedad II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
0.80
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
78%
Real Sociedad II or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
48%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
26%
Real Unión wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
78%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
44%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
19%
Real Unión 1+ goals
59%
Real Unión 2+ goals
22%
Real Unión 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
70%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
52%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
22%

Real Sociedad II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 2–0 Real Unión

Real Sociedad II beat Real Unión 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.