Real Sociedad II 4–1 Racing Santander

Real Sociedad II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Racing Santander

Robert Navarro 49', 26', 4'

Aritz Aranbarri 23'

C. Omoigui 47'

1/3/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Sociedad II43%

×Draw25%

Racing Santander32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Real Sociedad II

1.50

Racing Santander

1.25

Real Sociedad II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

1.69

0.80

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Racing Santander

1.69

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Racing Santander

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

68%

Real Sociedad II or Racing Santander

75%

Draw or Racing Santander

57%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

21%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

78%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

44%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

19%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

71%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

36%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

58%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Racing Santander defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Racing Santander attack 1.69 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

43%

level

25%

Racing Santander scores more

32%

Real Sociedad II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Robert Navarro

23'

Aritz Aranbarri

26'

Robert Navarro

46'

Alberto Villapalos← Álvaro Bustos

46'

46'

47'

49'

57'

Ander Martín← Xeber Alkain

64'

Marco Camús← Joan Maynau

65'

Aguirre← Julen Lobete

65'

Garrido← Robert Navarro

77'

Martínez Losa← Aitor Aranzabe

Real

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: Xabi Alonso

57'▲Ander Martín←▼Xeber Alkain

65'▲Aguirre←▼Julen Lobete

65'▲Garrido←▼Robert Navarro

77'▲Martínez Losa←▼Aitor Aranzabe

Real Sociedad II substitutes

MartínAguirreGarridoLosaGalarretaRecioBlascoOrtega

Manager: Solabarrieta

46'▲Alberto Villapalos←▼Álvaro Bustos

46'▲Cejudo←▼Pablo Torre

46'▲Jon Ander←▼A. Balboa

64'▲Marco Camús←▼Joan Maynau

Racing Santander substitutes

VillapalosCejudoAnderCamúsMantillaSiverioDíazSolarNjoh

Match Recap: Real Sociedad II vs Racing Santander

Real Sociedad II beat Racing Santander 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 3, 2021.

Goals: Robert Navarro (4', 26', 49'), Aritz Aranbarri (23'), C. Omoigui (47').

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad II vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad II vs Racing Santander