Real Sociedad II 2–0 Portugalete: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Portugalete

Ander Martín 41'

Julen Lobete 30'

3/14/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Sociedad II55%

×Draw25%

Portugalete20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchPortugalete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.83

Real Sociedad II

1.57

Portugalete

0.83

Real Sociedad II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

1.85

creates per match

0.86

0.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Portugalete

0.86

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Portugalete

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Portugalete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

80%

Real Sociedad II or Portugalete

75%

Draw or Portugalete

45%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

29%

Portugalete wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

79%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

46%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

21%

Portugalete 1+ goals

56%

Portugalete 2+ goals

20%

Portugalete 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

73%

Portugalete (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Portugalete away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Portugalete defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.57

Portugalete attack 0.86 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

55%

level

25%

Portugalete scores more

20%

Real Sociedad II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Julen Lobete

41'

Ander Martín

46'

Eneko Eizmendi← Mario Musy

46'

Josu Ibarbia← Zekri

56'

Fernando Rubio← Ander Santamaría

56'

Jacobo Alcalde← Thaylor Lubanzadio

70'

Robert Navarro← Beñat Turrientes

70'

Unai Veiga← Urko González

70'

Xeber Alkain← Ander Martín

73'

Valero← Ayala

84'

Aitor Aranzabe← Ekaitz Jiménez

90'

Aguirre← Julen Lobete

Real

Portugalete

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martín

⚽

▼

Lobete

Manager: Xabi Alonso

70'▲Robert Navarro←▼Beñat Turrientes

70'▲Unai Veiga←▼Urko González

70'▲Xeber Alkain←▼Ander Martín

84'▲Aitor Aranzabe←▼Ekaitz Jiménez

90'▲Aguirre←▼Julen Lobete

Real Sociedad II substitutes

NavarroVeigaAlkainAranzabeAguirreGarridoGalarretaBlascoOrtega

Manager: Asier Santana

46'▲Eneko Eizmendi←▼Mario Musy

46'▲Josu Ibarbia←▼Zekri

56'▲Fernando Rubio←▼Ander Santamaría

56'▲Jacobo Alcalde←▼Thaylor Lubanzadio

73'▲Valero←▼Ayala

Portugalete substitutes

EizmendiIbarbiaRubioAlcaldeValeroRodríguezBernardoLandetaRuiz

Match Recap: Real Sociedad II vs Portugalete

Real Sociedad II beat Portugalete 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 14, 2021.

Goals: Julen Lobete (30'), Ander Martín (41').

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad II vs Portugalete — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad II vs Portugalete