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Real Sociedad II vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
1/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II48%
×Draw26%
Osasuna II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.50
Osasuna II
1.04

Real Sociedad II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.55
Osasuna II
1.05

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
1.03
Osasuna II
1.44

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
74%
Real Sociedad II or Osasuna II
74%
Draw or Osasuna II
52%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
24%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
78%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
44%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
19%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
65%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
28%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
65%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
48%
level
26%
Osasuna II scores more
26%

Real Sociedad II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–2 Osasuna II

Real Sociedad II and Osasuna II drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.