Real Sociedad II 1–0 Leioa: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leioa

10/18/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Sociedad II64%

×Draw22%

Leioa14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.72

Real Sociedad II

1.83

Leioa

0.72

Real Sociedad II creates 154% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

1.85

creates per match

0.64

0.80

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Leioa

0.64

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Leioa

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Leioa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

86%

Real Sociedad II or Leioa

78%

Draw or Leioa

36%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

38%

Leioa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

84%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

54%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

28%

Leioa 1+ goals

51%

Leioa 2+ goals

16%

Leioa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

82%

Leioa (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Leioa attack 0.64 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

64%

level

22%

Leioa scores more

14%

Real Sociedad II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff