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Real Sociedad II vs Izarra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Izarra
Izarra
2/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Sociedad II61%
×Draw23%
Izarra16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.76
Izarra
0.77

Real Sociedad II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Izarra
0.74

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
0.80
Izarra
1.67

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Izarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
84%
Real Sociedad II or Izarra
77%
Draw or Izarra
39%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
35%
Izarra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
83%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
52%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
26%
Izarra 1+ goals
54%
Izarra 2+ goals
18%
Izarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
79%
Izarra (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Izarra away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Izarra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Izarra attack 0.74 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
61%
level
23%
Izarra scores more
16%

Real Sociedad II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 3–1 Izarra

Real Sociedad II beat Izarra 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.