Real Sociedad II 2–0 Eldense: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eldense

Ander Martín 58'

Javi Martón 49'

8/28/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II50%

×Draw27%

Eldense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.88

Real Sociedad II

1.44

Eldense

0.88

Real Sociedad II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

1.85

creates per match

0.95

0.80

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Eldense

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

77%

Real Sociedad II or Eldense

73%

Draw or Eldense

50%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

25%

Eldense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

76%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

42%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

18%

Eldense 1+ goals

59%

Eldense 2+ goals

22%

Eldense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

69%

Eldense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Eldense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.44

Eldense attack 0.95 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

50%

level

27%

Eldense scores more

23%

Real Sociedad II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

41'

M. Nunez

49'

Javi Martón

50'

I. Kortajarena

54'

Mario Soberón← Sergio Ortu

57'

D. Gonzalez Cabanes

58'

Ander Martín

59'

Pablo Marín← Iker Kortajarena

62'

F. Carnicer

63'

Albert Luque← Cris Montes

63'

Cristian López← Fran Carnicer

64'

A. Ramis Luque

71'

Alberto Dadie← Ander Martín

71'

Jorge Aguirre← Javi Martón

80'

Pedro Capó← Diego González

80'

Xavi Estació← Toni Abad

83'

Ander Zoilo← Jon Magunazelaia

83'

Jon Gorrotxategi← Urko González

84'

C. Lopez

Real

Eldense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martón

⚽

▼

Martín

Manager: Sergio Francisco

59'▲Pablo Marín←▼Iker Kortajarena

71'▲Alberto Dadie←▼Ander Martín

71'▲Jorge Aguirre←▼Javi Martón

83'▲Ander Zoilo←▼Jon Magunazelaia

83'▲Jon Gorrotxategi←▼Urko González

Real Sociedad II substitutes

MarínDadieAguirreZoiloGorrotxategiLebarbierArzakRodríguezFragaCarbonellTeijeiraCantero

Manager: Fernando Estévez

54'▲Mario Soberón←▼Sergio Ortu

63'▲Albert Luque←▼Cris Montes

63'▲Cristian López←▼Fran Carnicer

80'▲Pedro Capó←▼Diego González

80'▲Xavi Estació←▼Toni Abad

Eldense substitutes

SoberónLuqueLópezCapóEstacióHernándezStamatakisForteCorreia