Real Sociedad II 2–0 Atlético Baleares

Real Sociedad II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Baleares

L. Lespinasse 88'

J. Gómez 84'

10/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real Sociedad II57%

×Draw25%

Atlético Baleares18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.81

Real Sociedad II

1.64

Atlético Baleares

0.81

Real Sociedad II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 57 away

1.85

creates per match

0.82

0.80

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Atlético Baleares

0.82

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Atlético Baleares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

82%

Real Sociedad II or Atlético Baleares

75%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

43%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

31%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

81%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

49%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

23%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

56%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

19%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

76%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

57%

level

25%

Atlético Baleares scores more

18%

Real Sociedad II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

V. Pastrana

35'

A. Teijeira Martin

42'

Y. Cantero

54'

Daniel Garrido← Asier Teijeira

65'

Canario← Hugo Rodríguez

65'

Iñaki Olaortua← Josep Jaume

68'

L. Lespinasse← Jorge Aguirre

68'

Carlos Ramos← Alfonso Martín

69'

Fornies

75'

L. Lespinasse

81'

Alberto Dadie← Yago Cantero

81'

Imanol Ezkurdia← Urko González

83'

I. Kortajarena

84'

J. Gómez

85'

U. Adighibe← Miguelete Ramírez

88'

L. Lespinasse

Real

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Francisco

54'▲Daniel Garrido←▼Asier Teijeira

68'▲L. Lespinasse←▼Jorge Aguirre

81'▲Alberto Dadie←▼Yago Cantero

81'▲Imanol Ezkurdia←▼Urko González

Real Sociedad II substitutes

GarridoLespinasseDadieEzkurdiaCarbonellAranaGarcíaAzkune

Manager: Jordi Roger

65'▲Canario←▼Hugo Rodríguez

65'▲Iñaki Olaortua←▼Josep Jaume

68'▲Carlos Ramos←▼Alfonso Martín

85'▲U. Adighibe←▼Miguelete Ramírez

Atlético Baleares substitutes

CanarioOlaortuaRamosAdighibeKaxeDíazSánchezRamón

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 2–0 Atlético Baleares

Real Sociedad II beat Atlético Baleares 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Gómez (84'), L. Lespinasse (88').

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 2–0 Atlético Baleares