Real Sociedad II 2–0 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amorebieta

Jon Balda 54'

Ekain Orobengoa 34'

12/6/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Sociedad II56%

×Draw24%

Amorebieta20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.89

Real Sociedad II

1.70

Amorebieta

0.89

Real Sociedad II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

0.74

1.03

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Amorebieta

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

80%

Real Sociedad II or Amorebieta

76%

Draw or Amorebieta

44%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

31%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

82%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

51%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

24%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

59%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

22%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

74%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Amorebieta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.70

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

56%

level

24%

Amorebieta scores more

20%

Real Sociedad II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

28'

34'

43'

46'

N. Ben Hamed← A. Coulibaly

54'

N. Ben Hamed

54'

Jon Balda

63'

Eder García← A. Lebarbier

63'

Mikel Rodríguez← Alex Marchal

68'

Daniel Selma← Álvaro Yuste

69'

T. Nakai← Álvaro Marín

77'

Berto González← Pablo Hervías

77'

Kaxe← Íñigo Muñoz

78'

E. Orobengoa

80'

Berto

81'

Darío Ramírez← J. Ochieng

85'

E. Garcia

89'

Joni Eceiza← Mikel Goti

89'

Sydney Osazuwa← Ekain Orobengoa

90+1'

J. Eceizabarrena

Real

Amorebieta

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Orobengoa

▼

Ochieng

▼

Marchal

Manager: Sergio Francisco

63'▲Eder García←▼A. Lebarbier

63'▲Mikel Rodríguez←▼Alex Marchal

81'▲Darío Ramírez←▼J. Ochieng

89'▲Joni Eceiza←▼Mikel Goti

89'▲Sydney Osazuwa←▼Ekain Orobengoa

Real Sociedad II substitutes

GarcíaRodríguezRamírezEceizaOsazuwaRoperoJiménezGarroAgote

Manager: Natxo González

46'▲N. Ben Hamed←▼A. Coulibaly

68'▲Daniel Selma←▼Álvaro Yuste

69'▲T. Nakai←▼Álvaro Marín

77'▲Berto González←▼Pablo Hervías

77'▲Kaxe←▼Íñigo Muñoz

Amorebieta substitutes

HamedSelmaNakaiGonzálezKaxeCamposRekagorriAurtenetxe

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–0 Amorebieta

Real Sociedad II beat Amorebieta 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 6, 2024.

Goals: Ekain Orobengoa (34'), Jon Balda (54').

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–0 Amorebieta