Real Sociedad II 4–2 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Amorebieta

Xeber Alkain 80'

Robert Navarro 77'

N. Djouahra 24'

Ander Gorostidi 21'

Iker Bilbao 47', 39'

12/7/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real Sociedad II48%

×Draw27%

Amorebieta25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.94

Real Sociedad II

1.42

Amorebieta

0.94

Real Sociedad II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

1.85

creates per match

1.07

0.80

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

75%

Real Sociedad II or Amorebieta

73%

Draw or Amorebieta

52%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

24%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

76%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

17%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

61%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

24%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

66%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.42

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

48%

level

27%

Amorebieta scores more

25%

Real Sociedad II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

24'

39'

47'

57'

Aitor Ortega← Rementeria

68'

Xeber Alkain← N. Djouahra

75'

Aritz Aldasoro← Julen Lobete

77'

Robert Navarro

78'

Íñigo Orozco← Iker Bilbao

80'

Xeber Alkain

82'

Gabri Salazar← Ekain Zenitagoia

86'

Unai Veiga← Ander Gorostidi

Real

Amorebieta

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gorostidi

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Xabi Alonso

68'▲Xeber Alkain←▼N. Djouahra

75'▲Aritz Aldasoro←▼Julen Lobete

86'▲Unai Veiga←▼Ander Gorostidi

Real Sociedad II substitutes

AlkainAldasoroVeigaGabilondoGarridoLucbertAgirre

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

57'▲Aitor Ortega←▼Rementeria

78'▲Íñigo Orozco←▼Iker Bilbao

82'▲Gabri Salazar←▼Ekain Zenitagoia

Amorebieta substitutes

OrtegaOrozcoSalazarPérezMicaló

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 4–2 Amorebieta

Real Sociedad II beat Amorebieta 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 7, 2019.

Goals: Ander Gorostidi (21'), N. Djouahra (24'), Iker Bilbao (39', 47'), Robert Navarro (77'), Xeber Alkain (80').

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad II vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 4–2 Amorebieta