Real Soacha 0–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Real Soacha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jaguares

J. Maza 22'

7/16/2025

Primera B · Clausura - 1Parque Estadio Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Real Soacha37%

×Draw27%

Jaguares36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SoachaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.21

Real Soacha

1.24

Jaguares

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

1.48

creates per match

1.48

0.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Real Soacha

1.48

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Real Soacha

0.93

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw

64%

Real Soacha or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

63%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+

16%

Jaguares wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals

71%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

35%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

13%

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

51%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Soacha scores more

37%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

36%

Real Soacha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

37'

41'

44'

46'

46'

46'

L. Montano← J. Rubiano

54'

W. Davila

70'

D. Pino

72'

B. Caicedo← C. Castano

72'

J. Perez← D. Padilla

72'

D. Rodriguez Urango← D. Ceter

83'

J. B. Suaza Castaneda

85'

J. Julio← J. Herrera

90+4'

S. Moreno← J. Cajares

90+2'

J. Lovera← K. Lenis

90+2'

D. Reyes← J. Andrade

Real

Jaguares

30

Arrieta

20

▼

Andrade

24

▼

Ceter

1

Figueroa

7

▼

Herrera

60

▼

Lenis

23

Lora

15

⚽

Maza

4

Mosquera

26

▼

Padilla

14

Pino

9

Moreno

16

▼

Cajares

33

Catano

19

▼

Cortes

5

▼

27

14

▼

2

▼

46'▲W. Davila←▼J. Cortes

46'▲C. Gomez←▼J. Hoyos

46'▲L. Montano←▼J. Rubiano

72'▲B. Caicedo←▼C. Castano

90+4'▲S. Moreno←▼J. Cajares

Real Soacha substitutes

Caicedo8Davila24Gomez1MosqueraMontano3Moreno28Rios11VegaVidal

Manager: A. Hernández

72'▲J. Perez←▼D. Padilla

72'▲D. Rodriguez Urango←▼D. Ceter

85'▲J. Julio←▼J. Herrera

90+2'▲J. Lovera←▼K. Lenis

90+2'▲D. Reyes←▼J. Andrade

Jaguares substitutes

12Arroyo8Julio5Lovera3MosqueraPerez32Reyes10Urango