Real Soacha 1–2 Huila: Result & Stats | Primera B

Real Soacha

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Huila

S. Moreno 40'

J. Montes 65'

B. Moya 32'

6/13/2025

Primera B · Apertura - Quadrangular - 6Parque Estadio Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Real Soacha45%

×Draw28%

Huila27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SoachaExpected goals in this matchHuila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.97

Real Soacha

1.32

Huila

0.97

Real Soacha creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 89 away

1.48

creates per match

1.01

0.93

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Real Soacha

1.48

Huila

1.01

allows per match

Real Soacha

0.93

Huila

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Huila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw

73%

Real Soacha or Huila

72%

Draw or Huila

55%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+

21%

Huila wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals

73%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

38%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

15%

Huila 1+ goals

62%

Huila 2+ goals

25%

Huila 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

62%

Huila (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Huila away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Huila defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Huila attack 1.01 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Soacha scores more

45%

level

28%

Huila scores more

27%

Real Soacha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

B. Moya

34'

I. Camacho← J. Rubiano

39'

J. Lozano

40'

S. Moreno

42'

F. Rodriguez← J. Lozano

46'

46'

64'

65'

81'

81'

J. Cortes← J. Cajares

86'

A. Ararat← J. Ordonez

86'

C. S. Salguero Zapata← B. Moya

86'

J. Alegria← J. Montes

Real

Huila

22

Mendez

23

Arbelaez

25

▼

Lozano

4

Rodriguez

3

Ferrer

14

▼

Ordonez

7

Hernandez

20

⚽

▼

Moya

10

▼

Mendez

9

Duarte

17

⚽

▼

Montes

33

Catano

16

▼

Cajares

3

⚽

Moreno

2

Castaneda

27

▼

Parra

5

▼

Hoyos

20

▼

Rubiano

11

▼

30

14

9

34'▲I. Camacho←▼J. Rubiano

46'▲I. Cundumi←▼J. Hoyos

46'▲K. Cortes←▼Y. Vega

81'▲F. Torres←▼G. Parra

81'▲J. Cortes←▼J. Cajares

Real Soacha substitutes

1Mosquera18Torres6Camacho19Cortes4Moreno21Cundumi15Cortes

Manager: D. Corredor

42'▲F. Rodriguez←▼J. Lozano

64'▲T. Diaz←▼J. Mendez

86'▲A. Ararat←▼J. Ordonez

86'▲C. S. Salguero Zapata←▼B. Moya

86'▲J. Alegria←▼J. Montes

Huila substitutes

1Mena28Rodriguez29Ayala5Ararat18Zapata8Diaz21Alegria