Real Soacha 2–2 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Real Soacha

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Fortaleza FC

A. Rocha 34'

A. Oñate 11'

S. Navarro 82'

J. Blanco 33'

9/25/2023

Primera B · Clausura - 13Estadio Luis Carlos Galán Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Real Soacha44%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SoachaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Real Soacha

1.29

Fortaleza FC

0.96

Real Soacha creates 34% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 96 away

1.48

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Real Soacha

1.48

Fortaleza FC

0.98

allows per match

Real Soacha

0.93

Fortaleza FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw

72%

Real Soacha or Fortaleza FC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

56%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+

20%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals

72%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

37%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

14%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

62%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

25%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

61%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fortaleza FC attack 0.98 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Soacha scores more

44%

level

28%

Fortaleza FC scores more

28%

Real Soacha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

33'

34'

39'

45'

58'

58'

62'

B. Sanchéz← J. Arcíla

66'

A. Moralez← J. Guevara

66'

J. Hinestroza← J. Ampudia

66'

N. Rodríguez← L. Pico

67'

W. Bravo

67'

W. Bravo

71'

N. Rodriguez

71'

N. Rodriguez

71'

N. Rodriguez

74'

J. Guzmán← Y. Londoño

79'

S. Cuero← J. Herrera

82'

S. Navarro

84'

D. Álvarez← G. Orozco

84'

J. Monsalve← A. Oñate

90+2'

90+3'

D. Rivera

Real

Fortaleza

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Oñate

Manager: J. Barragán

62'▲B. Sanchéz←▼J. Arcíla

84'▲D. Álvarez←▼G. Orozco

84'▲J. Monsalve←▼A. Oñate

Real Soacha substitutes

SanchézÁlvarezMonsalveRiosQuinteroCatañoRamos

Manager: S. Oliveros

66'▲A. Moralez←▼J. Guevara

66'▲J. Hinestroza←▼J. Ampudia

66'▲N. Rodríguez←▼L. Pico

74'▲J. Guzmán←▼Y. Londoño

79'▲S. Cuero←▼J. Herrera

Fortaleza FC substitutes

MoralezHinestrozaRodríguezGuzmánCueroBalantaBarragán

Match Recap: Real Soacha vs Fortaleza FC

Real Soacha and Fortaleza FC drew 2-2 in Primera B on September 25, 2023.

Goals: A. Oñate (11'), J. Blanco (33'), A. Rocha (34'), S. Navarro (82').

The match was played at Estadio Luis Carlos Galán Sarmiento in Soacha, Cundinamarca.

Real Soacha vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Soacha vs Fortaleza FC