Real Soacha 0–0 Cortulua: Result & Stats

Real Soacha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cortulua

7/23/2023

Primera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Luis Carlos Galán Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Real Soacha46%

×Draw26%

Cortulua28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SoachaExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.08

Real Soacha

1.46

Cortulua

1.08

Real Soacha creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 93 away

1.48

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Real Soacha

1.48

Cortulua

1.23

allows per match

Real Soacha

0.93

Cortulua

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw

72%

Real Soacha or Cortulua

74%

Draw or Cortulua

54%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+

22%

Cortulua wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals

77%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

43%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

18%

Cortulua 1+ goals

66%

Cortulua 2+ goals

29%

Cortulua 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

62%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Soacha scores more

46%

level

26%

Cortulua scores more

28%

Real Soacha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff