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Real Santander W vs Internacional Palmira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Real Santander W
Real Santander W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
3/9/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 3Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Santander W38%
×Draw32%
Internacional Palmira W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander W
1.00
Internacional Palmira W
0.84

Real Santander W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Real Santander W
0.60
Internacional Palmira W
0.76

allows per match

Real Santander W
0.93
Internacional Palmira W
1.40

finishing

Real Santander W+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander W ↓

Internacional Palmira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Real Santander W or draw
70%
Real Santander W or Internacional Palmira W
68%
Draw or Internacional Palmira W
62%

Winning margin

Real Santander W wins by 2+
15%
Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Santander W 1+ goals
63%
Real Santander W 2+ goals
26%
Real Santander W 3+ goals
8%
Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
57%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
21%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Santander W (draw refunded)
56%
Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Internacional Palmira W away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander W attack 0.60 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.00

Internacional Palmira W attack 0.76 + Real Santander W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Santander W scores more
38%
level
32%
Internacional Palmira W scores more
30%

Real Santander W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Santander W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Real Santander W 1–0 Internacional Palmira W

Real Santander W beat Internacional Palmira W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado in Floridablanca.