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Real Santander W vs Deportivo Pasto W — Liga Femenina 2020

Real Santander W
Real Santander W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
3/9/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 3Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Santander W45%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Pasto W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander W
1.20
Deportivo Pasto W
0.80

Real Santander W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Real Santander W
0.60
Deportivo Pasto W
0.67

allows per match

Real Santander W
0.93
Deportivo Pasto W
1.79

finishing

Real Santander W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real Santander W or draw
75%
Real Santander W or Deportivo Pasto W
70%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto W
55%

Winning margin

Real Santander W wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Santander W 1+ goals
70%
Real Santander W 2+ goals
34%
Real Santander W 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
55%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Santander W (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander W attack 0.60 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Real Santander W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Santander W scores more
45%
level
30%
Deportivo Pasto W scores more
25%

Real Santander W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Santander W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Santander W vs Deportivo Pasto W

Real Santander W and Deportivo Pasto W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on March 9, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado in Floridablanca.