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Real Santander W vs América de Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Real Santander W
Real Santander W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
América de Cali W
América de Cali W
4/23/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 8Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Santander W20%
×Draw28%
América de Cali W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander W
0.73
América de Cali W
1.39

América de Cali W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Real Santander W
0.60
América de Cali W
1.85

allows per match

Real Santander W
0.93
América de Cali W
0.87

finishing

Real Santander W+0.00on par
América de Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander W ↓

América de Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Santander W or draw
47%
Real Santander W or América de Cali W
72%
Draw or América de Cali W
80%

Winning margin

Real Santander W wins by 2+
6%
América de Cali W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Real Santander W 1+ goals
52%
Real Santander W 2+ goals
17%
Real Santander W 3+ goals
4%
América de Cali W 1+ goals
75%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
40%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Santander W (draw refunded)
27%
América de Cali W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

América de Cali W away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander W attack 0.60 + América de Cali W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

América de Cali W attack 1.85 + Real Santander W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Santander W scores more
20%
level
28%
América de Cali W scores more
53%

América de Cali W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Santander W vs América de Cali W

América de Cali W beat Real Santander W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on April 23, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado in Floridablanca.