Real Santander W 3–2 Alianza W: Result & Stats

Real Santander W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Alianza W

6/21/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 16Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Santander W45%

×Draw29%

Alianza W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Santander WExpected goals in this matchAlianza W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.91

Real Santander W

1.27

Alianza W

0.91

Real Santander W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

0.60

creates per match

0.89

0.93

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Real Santander W

0.60

Alianza W

0.89

allows per match

Real Santander W

0.93

Alianza W

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Santander W+0.00on par

Alianza W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander W ↓

Alianza W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Santander W or draw

73%

Real Santander W or Alianza W

71%

Draw or Alianza W

55%

Winning margin

Real Santander W wins by 2+

20%

Alianza W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Santander W 1+ goals

72%

Real Santander W 2+ goals

36%

Real Santander W 3+ goals

14%

Alianza W 1+ goals

60%

Alianza W 2+ goals

23%

Alianza W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Santander W (draw refunded)

63%

Alianza W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Alianza W away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander W attack 0.60 + Alianza W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Alianza W attack 0.89 + Real Santander W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Santander W scores more

45%

level

29%

Alianza W scores more

27%

Real Santander W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Santander W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff