Real Santander 1–1 Valledupar: Result & Stats

Real Santander

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Valledupar

10/9/2021

Primera B · Clausura - 12Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Real Santander42%

×Draw28%

Valledupar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SantanderExpected goals in this matchValledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Real Santander

1.29

Valledupar

1.03

Real Santander creates 25% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 89 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.20

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Real Santander

1.13

Valledupar

0.87

allows per match

Real Santander

1.20

Valledupar

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par

Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw

70%

Real Santander or Valledupar

72%

Draw or Valledupar

58%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+

19%

Valledupar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals

72%

Real Santander 2+ goals

37%

Real Santander 3+ goals

14%

Valledupar 1+ goals

64%

Valledupar 2+ goals

28%

Valledupar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)

59%

Valledupar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Santander scores more

42%

level

28%

Valledupar scores more

30%

Real Santander at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff