Real Santander 2–0 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Real Santander

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza FC

J. Báez 83'

K. Parra 77'

2/11/2023

Primera B · Apertura - 2Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Real Santander36%

×Draw29%

Fortaleza FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SantanderExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.07

Real Santander

1.11

Fortaleza FC

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 96 away

1.13

creates per match

0.98

1.16

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Real Santander

1.13

Fortaleza FC

0.98

allows per match

Real Santander

1.16

Fortaleza FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw

66%

Real Santander or Fortaleza FC

71%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

64%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+

15%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals

67%

Real Santander 2+ goals

30%

Real Santander 3+ goals

10%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

66%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

29%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)

51%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Fortaleza FC attack 0.98 + Real Santander defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Santander scores more

36%

level

29%

Fortaleza FC scores more

34%

Real Santander at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Hinestroza

17'

Rueda Juan

46'

R. Pájaro← S. Mosquera

57'

K. Parra← P. Rodríguez

68'

C. Lucumi

68'

N. Rodríguez← C. Lucumi

68'

J. Muñoz← J. Barrera

69'

J. Celis← S. Rey

77'

K. Parra

79'

81'

J. Báez← J. Liñan

81'

K. Flórez← J. Pertúz

81'

S. Orejuela← J. Rueda

82'

83'

J. Báez

86'

A. Moralez← J. Hinestroza

Real

Fortaleza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. García

57'▲K. Parra←▼P. Rodríguez

69'▲J. Celis←▼S. Rey

81'▲J. Báez←▼J. Liñan

81'▲K. Flórez←▼J. Pertúz

81'▲S. Orejuela←▼J. Rueda

Real Santander substitutes

ParraCelisBáezFlórezOrejuelaDuqueChacón

Manager: S. Oliveros

46'▲R. Pájaro←▼S. Mosquera

68'▲N. Rodríguez←▼C. Lucumi

68'▲J. Muñoz←▼J. Barrera

86'▲A. Moralez←▼J. Hinestroza

Fortaleza FC substitutes

PájaroRodríguezMuñozMoralezGarcíaGarcíaRodríguez

Match Recap: Real Santander vs Fortaleza FC

Real Santander beat Fortaleza FC 2-0 in Primera B on February 11, 2023.

Goals: K. Parra (77'), J. Báez (83').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Concha in Piedecuesta.

Real Santander vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Santander vs Fortaleza FC