Real Santander 1–1 Depor FC: Result & Stats

Real Santander

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Depor FC

2/27/2024

Primera B · Apertura - 5Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Real Santander45%

×Draw27%

Depor FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SantanderExpected goals in this matchDepor FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Real Santander

1.38

Depor FC

1.04

Real Santander creates 33% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 128 away

1.13

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Real Santander

1.13

Depor FC

0.88

allows per match

Real Santander

1.20

Depor FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par

Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Depor FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw

72%

Real Santander or Depor FC

73%

Draw or Depor FC

55%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+

21%

Depor FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals

75%

Real Santander 2+ goals

40%

Real Santander 3+ goals

16%

Depor FC 1+ goals

65%

Depor FC 2+ goals

28%

Depor FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)

61%

Depor FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Santander scores more

45%

level

27%

Depor FC scores more

28%

Real Santander at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff