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Depor FC vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Depor FC
Depor FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Santander
Real Santander
8/16/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 5Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Depor FC42%
×Draw29%
Real Santander30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Depor FC
1.24
Real Santander
1.00

Depor FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 126 away

creates per match

Depor FC
0.85
Real Santander
0.73

allows per match

Depor FC
1.27
Real Santander
1.62

finishing

Depor FC+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Depor FC ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Depor FC or draw
70%
Depor FC or Real Santander
71%
Draw or Real Santander
58%

Winning margin

Depor FC wins by 2+
18%
Real Santander wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Depor FC 1+ goals
71%
Depor FC 2+ goals
35%
Depor FC 3+ goals
13%
Real Santander 1+ goals
63%
Real Santander 2+ goals
26%
Real Santander 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Depor FC (draw refunded)
58%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Depor FC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Depor FC attack 0.85 + Real Santander defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Real Santander attack 0.73 + Depor FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Depor FC scores more
42%
level
29%
Real Santander scores more
30%

Depor FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Depor FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Depor FC vs Real Santander

Real Santander beat Depor FC 1-0 in Primera B on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.