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Real Santander vs Cortulua — Primera B 2018

Real Santander
Real Santander
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cortulua
Cortulua
5/6/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 13Estadio Álvaro Gómez Hurtado (Floridablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Real Santander38%
×Draw27%
Cortulua35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander
1.28
Cortulua
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 93 away

creates per match

Real Santander
1.13
Cortulua
1.23

allows per match

Real Santander
1.20
Cortulua
1.43

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw
65%
Real Santander or Cortulua
73%
Draw or Cortulua
62%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+
17%
Cortulua wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals
72%
Real Santander 2+ goals
37%
Real Santander 3+ goals
14%
Cortulua 1+ goals
70%
Cortulua 2+ goals
34%
Cortulua 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)
52%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Santander scores more
38%
level
27%
Cortulua scores more
35%

Real Santander at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Real Santander 0–1 Cortulua

Cortulua beat Real Santander 1-0 in Primera B on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Álvaro Gómez Hurtado (Floridablanca).