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Cortulua vs Real Santander — Copa Colombia 2019

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real Santander
Real Santander
3/18/2021Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cortulua43%
×Draw26%
Real Santander31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.43
Real Santander
1.17

Cortulua creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cortulua
0.86
Real Santander
1.05

allows per match

Cortulua
1.29
Real Santander
2.00

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
69%
Cortulua or Real Santander
74%
Draw or Real Santander
57%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
21%
Real Santander wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
76%
Cortulua 2+ goals
42%
Cortulua 3+ goals
17%
Real Santander 1+ goals
69%
Real Santander 2+ goals
33%
Real Santander 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
58%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Real Santander away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.86 + Real Santander defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Real Santander attack 1.05 + Cortulua defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cortulua scores more
43%
level
26%
Real Santander scores more
31%

Cortulua at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cortulua vs Real Santander

Real Santander beat Cortulua 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.