Real Santander 3–4 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Real Santander

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Bucaramanga

3/20/2024

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Real Santander43%

×Draw26%

Bucaramanga30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SantanderExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Real Santander

1.43

Bucaramanga

1.15

Real Santander creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.55

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Real Santander

1.55

Bucaramanga

0.90

allows per match

Real Santander

1.40

Bucaramanga

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw

70%

Real Santander or Bucaramanga

74%

Draw or Bucaramanga

57%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+

21%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals

76%

Real Santander 2+ goals

42%

Real Santander 3+ goals

17%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

68%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

32%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)

59%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.55 + Bucaramanga defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bucaramanga attack 0.90 + Real Santander defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Santander scores more

43%

level

26%

Bucaramanga scores more

30%

Real Santander at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff